Disclaimer: This site is an independent editorial resource providing general information and estimates about new-car buy vs. lease financial decisions. It is not financial, tax, or legal advice. Tax treatment of business vehicle expenses, EV credits, and loan-interest deductions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) varies by individual circumstance - consult a licensed tax professional before relying on any figures for a filing decision. Calculator outputs are estimates based on the inputs provided and current market conventions; actual dealer quotes, APRs, money factors, residuals, and residual buyout prices may vary. This site is not affiliated with any manufacturer, captive finance arm, bank, insurance company, or extended warranty provider. All trademarks are property of their respective owners. Tax rules, APR tiers, and lease terms change frequently. Data verified April 2026. Confirm specifics with your lender, dealer, or CPA.

Total Cost / April 2026

6-Year Cumulative Cost: Buy vs Two Lease Cycles

The single best apples-to-apples buy-vs-lease comparison is the 6-year horizon: a 60-month finance loan followed by 12 months of debt-free ownership, versus two consecutive 36-month leases. Both paths deliver 72 months of vehicle access. The buy path produces an owned vehicle at the end with residual value; the lease path produces no asset. The 6-year horizon is long enough that financing-cost differences, depreciation curves, and the OBBBA loan-interest deduction all play out fully, but short enough to avoid second-decade reliability and exit-value uncertainty. This guide walks through the comparison framework, runs four worked scenarios across vehicle categories (compact SUV, mid-size sedan, luxury sedan, full-size pickup), and discusses the sensitivity to APR, money factor, and OBBBA eligibility. April 2026 numbers.

The comparison framework

The buy path: down payment, 60 months of finance payments, sales tax (state-dependent treatment), plus 12 months of debt-free ownership and operating costs. At month 72 the buyer owns a 6-year-old vehicle with 72,000 to 90,000 miles, with residual value that depends on the vehicle. Subtract the residual value from cumulative cost to compute net cost.

The lease path: drive-off charges, 36 monthly lease payments, disposition fee, then a new lease drive-off and another 36 monthly lease payments. At month 72 the lessee walks away with no asset. Total cost equals the cumulative cash outflow.

For the OBBBA-eligible scenarios, the buy path receives an annual tax deduction equal to the auto-loan interest paid (capped at $10,000 per year, well above typical auto-loan interest amounts). The tax savings are calculated at the buyer’s combined federal-plus-state marginal rate and subtracted from cumulative buy cost to compute net cost.

Operating costs (fuel, insurance, maintenance) assumed identical between buy and lease for the same vehicle and excluded from the comparison. Property-tax states (Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, Mississippi, others) excluded for the same reason. The comparison isolates the financing-and-depreciation cost difference.

Scenario 1: Compact SUV (2026 Honda CR-V EX AWD)

Negotiated price $33,000. Buyer prime credit, 22 percent marginal federal rate, in-bracket for OBBBA. CR-V is US-assembled (East Liberty OH or Greensburg IN), so OBBBA applies.

Buy path. $4,000 down, $29,000 financed at 6.89 percent APR over 60 months = $574 monthly. 60 payments $34,440 + $4,000 down = $38,440 cumulative cash. Interest paid $5,440, OBBBA tax savings at 22 percent = $1,197. Months 61 to 72: $0 finance cost. Vehicle at month 72 with 72,000 miles, market value roughly $14,500 (Honda CR-V holds value strongly). Net 6-year cost: $38,440 less $1,197 OBBBA less $14,500 residual = $22,743.

Lease path. 36-month lease at $385 base, $412 with 7 percent tax, $2,000 drive-off, $400 disposition. 36 payments $14,832 + $2,000 + $400 = $17,232 cycle 1. Replace with second 36-month lease, expect roughly 8 percent price escalation: $416 base, $445 with tax, $2,150 drive-off, $400 disposition. 36 payments $16,020 + $2,150 + $400 = $18,570 cycle 2. Cumulative 6-year lease cost: $35,802 with $0 asset.

Verdict. Buy wins by $13,059 over 6 years on the CR-V.

Scenario 2: Mid-size sedan (2026 Toyota Camry LE Hybrid)

Negotiated price $30,500. Buyer prime credit, 22 percent marginal federal rate, in-bracket for OBBBA. Camry is US-assembled (Georgetown KY), so OBBBA applies.

Buy path. $3,500 down, $27,000 financed at 6.89 percent APR over 60 months = $534 monthly. 60 payments $32,040 + $3,500 down = $35,540 cumulative cash. Interest paid $5,040, OBBBA tax savings at 22 percent = $1,109. Months 61 to 72: $0 finance cost. Vehicle at month 72 with 72,000 miles, market value roughly $13,000. Net 6-year cost: $35,540 less $1,109 OBBBA less $13,000 residual = $21,431.

Lease path. 36-month lease at $349 base, $373 with 7 percent tax, $1,900 drive-off, $400 disposition. 36 payments $13,428 + $1,900 + $400 = $15,728 cycle 1. Replace cycle 2 at 8 percent escalation: $377 base, $403 with tax, $2,050 drive-off, $400 disposition. 36 payments $14,508 + $2,050 + $400 = $16,958 cycle 2. Cumulative 6-year lease cost: $32,686.

Verdict. Buy wins by $11,255 over 6 years on the Camry Hybrid.

Scenario 3: Luxury sedan (2026 BMW 530i xDrive)

Negotiated price $59,000. Buyer prime credit, 32 percent combined federal-plus-state marginal rate, in-bracket for OBBBA. 5 Series is imported from Germany (Dingolfing plant), so OBBBA does NOT apply. Maintenance differential in years 5 to 6 estimated at $2,000 above lease comparison.

Buy path. $8,000 down, $51,000 financed at 7.49 percent APR (slight luxury premium) over 60 months = $1,021 monthly. 60 payments $61,260 + $8,000 down = $69,260 cumulative cash. No OBBBA (not US-assembled). Months 61 to 72 maintenance estimate $2,000. Vehicle at month 72 with 72,000 miles, market value roughly $19,500 (BMW 5 Series depreciates aggressively post-warranty). Net 6-year cost: $69,260 + $2,000 maintenance less $19,500 residual = $51,760.

Lease path. 36-month lease at $649 base (BMW aggressive subvention), $694 with 7 percent tax, $3,500 drive-off, $450 disposition. 36 payments $24,984 + $3,500 + $450 = $28,934 cycle 1. Replace cycle 2 at 6 percent escalation: $688 base, $736 with tax, $3,700 drive-off, $450 disposition. 36 payments $26,496 + $3,700 + $450 = $30,646 cycle 2. Cumulative 6-year lease cost: $59,580.

Verdict. Buy wins by $7,820 over 6 years on the BMW 530i, but the margin is much narrower than on Japanese brands because of steep post-warranty depreciation and the absence of OBBBA. For a buyer who values cash-flow predictability and prefers a new car every 3 years, the lease may be the right choice despite the dollar disadvantage.

Scenario 4: Full-size pickup (2026 Ford F-150 XLT 4x4)

Negotiated price $52,000. Buyer prime credit, 22 percent marginal federal rate, in-bracket for OBBBA. F-150 is US-assembled (Dearborn MI, Kansas City MO), so OBBBA applies.

Buy path. $6,000 down, $46,000 financed at 6.89 percent APR over 60 months = $911 monthly. 60 payments $54,660 + $6,000 down = $60,660 cumulative cash. Interest paid $8,660, OBBBA tax savings at 22 percent = $1,905. Months 61 to 72: $0 finance cost. Vehicle at month 72 with 72,000 miles, market value roughly $24,500 (F-150 holds value strongly). Net 6-year cost: $60,660 less $1,905 OBBBA less $24,500 residual = $34,255.

Lease path. 36-month lease at $599 base, $641 with 7 percent tax, $2,800 drive-off, $400 disposition. 36 payments $23,076 + $2,800 + $400 = $26,276 cycle 1. Replace cycle 2 at 8 percent escalation: $647 base, $692 with tax, $3,000 drive-off, $400 disposition. 36 payments $24,912 + $3,000 + $400 = $28,312 cycle 2. Cumulative 6-year lease cost: $54,588.

Verdict. Buy wins by $20,333 over 6 years on the F-150. Pickups consistently produce the largest buy-vs-lease gaps because of strong residuals, OBBBA eligibility, and the captive’s reluctance to subvent leases on a high-demand category.

Summary across four scenarios

Vehicle6-yr Buy6-yr Lease (x2)Buy Saves
Honda CR-V EX AWD$22,743$35,802$13,059
Toyota Camry LE Hybrid$21,431$32,686$11,255
BMW 530i xDrive$51,760$59,580$7,820
Ford F-150 XLT 4x4$34,255$54,588$20,333

Sensitivity to key assumptions

APR sensitivity. A 100 basis-point reduction in finance APR (6.89 percent to 5.89 percent) reduces buy-path cumulative interest by roughly $1,100 to $1,800 depending on vehicle price, increasing buy advantage by the same amount. A 100 basis-point increase widens lease advantage or narrows buy advantage by a similar amount.

Money factor sensitivity. A 0.00040 reduction in money factor (roughly 100 basis points of APR equivalent) reduces 36-month-lease total cost by roughly $700 to $1,000 per cycle, so reduces cumulative 2-cycle lease cost by $1,400 to $2,000.

Residual sensitivity. A 5-point reduction in retained value at month 72 (e.g. CR-V at 38 percent rather than 44 percent of original price) reduces buy-path residual by roughly $1,650 to $3,000 depending on vehicle, narrowing buy advantage by the same amount.

OBBBA sensitivity. Loss of OBBBA eligibility (non-US-assembled vehicle or above-phase-out income) reduces buy-path benefit by roughly $1,100 to $2,400 over 5 years of loan interest. The Honda CR-V scenario goes from $13,059 buy advantage to $11,862 without OBBBA. The Camry scenario from $11,255 to $10,146. The F-150 scenario from $20,333 to $18,428.

BUY WINS 6-YEAR HORIZON ACROSS ALL CATEGORIES

On a 6-year horizon comparing 60-month finance plus 1 year free vs two 36-month leases, buy wins on dollar cost across all four representative vehicle categories. The margin ranges from roughly $8,000 (luxury German sedan, narrowest case) to roughly $20,000 (full-size pickup, widest case), with mainstream Japanese SUVs and sedans landing in the $11,000 to $13,000 range.

The lease path can still be the right choice for buyers who value cash-flow predictability, want a new vehicle every 3 years, or expect to drive less than 12,000 mi/yr (lease residuals reward low mileage). The dollar disadvantage is the price of those preferences. Plug your specific vehicle and APR into the break-even calculator to confirm the math for your scenario.

6-Year Cost FAQ

Why compare buy at 60 months plus 1 year free vs two 36-month leases? ⌄
Because it is the most directly-comparable lifestyle scenario. A 60-month finance loan plus 12 months of debt-free ownership produces 72 months (6 years) of vehicle ownership. Two consecutive 36-month leases produces 72 months of vehicle access. Both scenarios deliver the same horizon of transportation, with the buy path producing an owned vehicle at the end (with residual value) and the lease path producing no asset. The 6-year horizon is also long enough that financing-cost differences, depreciation paths, and any tax preferences (like the OBBBA loan-interest deduction) have time to play out fully. Shorter comparisons (36 months only) systematically favor lease because they ignore the post-loan period where the buyer enjoys zero monthly payment. Longer comparisons (10+ years) introduce uncertainty about second-decade vehicle reliability and exit-value forecasting.
What assumptions go into the 6-year scenarios? ⌄
Per scenario: prime credit (FICO 720+), 12,000 mi/yr (the captive standard lease mileage allowance), 6.5 percent state sales tax (a midpoint US average per the Tax Foundation 2025 rankings), monthly-method state (no upfront sales tax), buy-path finance at 6.89 percent APR per the Bankrate April 2026 national average, lease-path money factor at the typical prime-tier subvented rate for the specific make and model. Insurance, fuel, and maintenance assumed identical between buy and lease and excluded from the comparison (these costs apply to the same vehicle regardless of acquisition method). Property tax, registration fees, and personal-property-tax states excluded from the comparison for the same reason. The comparison isolates the financing-and-depreciation difference between the two paths.
Does the OBBBA deduction change the conclusion? ⌄
Materially for US-assembled vehicles and in-bracket buyers. The OBBBA deduction allows up to $10,000 per year of auto-loan interest as an above-the-line deduction for US-assembled new-vehicle purchases originated 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2028, subject to income phase-out at $100,000 single MAGI and $200,000 joint MAGI. On a typical $40,000 vehicle financed at 6.89 percent APR over 60 months, the cumulative interest is roughly $7,600 and the cumulative tax savings at a 22 percent marginal rate are roughly $1,672 (or $2,432 at 32 percent combined federal-plus-state). This shifts the 6-year buy cost down by 4 to 6 percent for in-bracket OBBBA-eligible buyers and widens the buy-vs-lease gap on US-assembled vehicles meaningfully. The deduction does not apply to non-US-assembled vehicles, leases, or out-of-bracket buyers.
What about maintenance during years 5 and 6? ⌄
Modest cost increase for the buy path, no cost for the lease path (because each lease cycle ends at 36 months, well within manufacturer powertrain warranty for most brands). Estimate roughly $400 to $800 per year of unscheduled maintenance in years 5 and 6 for a buyer holding a 60-month-financed vehicle plus 12 months free, on a typical Japanese or Korean brand (Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mazda, Subaru). German brands (BMW, Mercedes, Audi, VW, Porsche) typically run roughly $1,000 to $1,800 per year in years 5 and 6, reflecting their reputation for higher post-warranty maintenance cost. The maintenance differential of roughly $1,500 to $2,500 over years 5 to 6 should be added to the buy-path cost when comparing the German vehicles to the lease path; for the Japanese and Korean brands the differential is small enough to make a marginal difference.
What if I want to buy a vehicle to keep for 10+ years? ⌄
The buy path dominates lease at any horizon over 7 to 8 years for reliable vehicles. The lease path scales linearly with lease cycles (each 36-month lease costs roughly the same in real terms), while the buy path has zero financing cost after month 60 and the depreciation curve flattens after year 5. A buyer who plans to hold a Toyota Tacoma, Honda CR-V, Lexus RX, or Subaru Outback for 10 to 12 years will spend roughly 40 to 60 percent less on financing-and-depreciation than a comparable lessee over the same horizon. The trade-off: long-hold buyers absorb the maintenance-cost increase in years 7 to 12 and accept whatever the vehicle is worth at exit (versus the lease-end walk-away with no salvage decision). For brands with strong reliability records, long-hold buy is almost always the lowest-cost path.
How sensitive are the conclusions to APR and money factor assumptions? ⌄
Moderately sensitive but generally directional. A 100 basis-point reduction in finance APR (from 6.89 percent to 5.89 percent) on a $40,000 finance over 60 months reduces cumulative interest by roughly $1,200 and reduces the buy-path total cost by the same amount. A 100 basis-point reduction in lease money factor (a roughly 0.00040 reduction) reduces a 36-month lease total cost by roughly $720 to $900. The buy-vs-lease gap is more sensitive to finance APR than to lease money factor because the finance term is longer and the principal balance higher. In the current rate environment, a buyer with above-average credit (FICO 760+) may negotiate roughly 50 basis points below the Bankrate average APR, which widens the buy-path advantage. A buyer with average credit (FICO 660-700) faces APRs roughly 150 to 250 basis points above the Bankrate prime average, which narrows the gap or, on luxury vehicles, can tilt the math toward lease.
Does the lease win in any 6-year scenario? ⌄
Rarely, on pure dollar cost over a 6-year horizon. Lease wins on cost in scenarios where the vehicle depreciates faster than the lease residual implies (so the lessee walks away from a vehicle worth less than expected) or where the buyer has below-prime credit that produces an above-average finance APR. Examples: luxury German sedans (BMW 7 Series, Mercedes S-Class) where post-warranty depreciation is steep and the captive subvents leases aggressively; certain EVs in the 2023 to 2025 era when the $7,500 Section 45W lessor credit was passed through (now expired); high-MSRP vehicles purchased by below-prime-credit borrowers facing 9 to 11 percent finance APRs. For typical buyers with prime credit on mainstream brands, the 6-year buy path almost always beats two 36-month lease cycles, often by $10,000 to $25,000 of cumulative cost.

Related pages

2026 Decision Factors60-Month Finance vs Leasing TwiceTotal Cost of OwnershipBy Ownership HorizonBuy vs Lease PickupBreak-Even Calculator

Updated 2026-04-27